Be successful in sports betting

Using betting tools for our success

All involved long enough in sports betting know that the success depends on the information the bettor has. And we're not talking about information about who is injured and which player is in good shape, but we are talking about serious betting analyses covering different betting system and methods.

To develop such betting systems the punter needs to gather and analyze information about past matches which is a hard work if somebody wants to do it manually. Therefore you should use betting tools to do the job and for the bettor to remain solely to make the needed analysis. Of course the analyzing is the most important part of the job.

Where can we find such betting tools? Actually it is not particularly difficult, as on the internet we can find many similar proposals. The punter is only required to carefully evaluate all the different offers and choose those that suit them best for their needs.

Of course most of this betting tools are paid, but for their making is thrown hard labour, which ultimately should not remain unpaid.

You should carefully consider what you need before you buy a betting tool. This means you need to decide exactly for which sport you want information, about which leagues, which betting markets you are going to use, with which bookmakers you will work, etc. When you have that in mind, you will be ready to buy your betting tool and to get from it the most.

Moreover, if you know exactly what you want, you can order your own betting tool that can work only with your ideas. Since the author will be able to sell it in the future, the price won't be much more expensive and it will do for you a great job.

Using betting tools is a step forward for you to be a truly professional punter and to get the desired profit from sports betting.

Betting prediction for the rematch between Real Madrid and Schalke 04

Real Madrid hosts Schalke 04 in a protocol rematch of the 1/8 finals of the UEFA Champions League. After the thunderous victory with 6:1 as a guest, Real is now confident that they will go further in the tournament. I am sure that many people expected a victory for Real Madrid in the first leg, but hardly there was someone who really believed that the victory will come with five goals difference.

Basically to make betting predictions in the second leg matches after such results as the one in the first match is extremely difficult. In such matches the most important becomes the motivation with which the two teams will play the match. Another important factor that must be taken into account is the schedule of the teams and what they fight for in their home league.

Of course, the main goal for Real in Primera is the title. Right now, the team is on the first place, with three points ahead of the second team - Atletico Madrid. However, what is more important is that they are going to play on Sunday not with any other team, but with Barcelona. Of course, this would be a much more important match for Real than the protocol rematch against Schalke.

More than likely, the main of Real's players will be saved in this match, but this opens up new questions for anyone who decides to bet on this match. The players who normally don't play regularly for Real will have their chance in the match against Schalke. This means they would give everything to impress the coaches and will be highly motivated to perform good enough.

This shifts the focus and now the question is whether the second team of Real Madrid is able to beat Schalke 04 at Santiago Bernabeu? The answer is not easy, especially with the odds that the bookmakers offer.

A victory for Real Madrid in this match is estimated at 1.22 by bet365, which is the highest rate that can be found for this match. Bet at home offers 1.15 for Real, while William Hill gives 1.17. Schalke's chances in this match are estimated at 15 by William Hill and Bet365 and on 14 by Bet at home.

Personally, I'd skip this bet, but if you have to play it I would bet for a possible surprise. Hardly any other time I would have so easy match in which to bet at odds of 15 with such chances for success. Schalke 04 is not a team for odds of 15 and this is why my bet in this match will be to back them.

The draws percentages in the big soccer leagues

Do you wonder in which of the major football leagues in the world the percentage of draws is the highest? If so, I've taken care of that and I have gathered all the information you need. A few days ago I started checking which the championship with most draws is as a part of a betting strategy I want to try.

So if you decide to bet on draws in the matches of the championship of the Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga, Serie A and Ligue 1, I am pretty sure you should think again. Indeed, the odds offered by the bookmakers and especially by bet365, Bet at Home and William Hill are good, but is this kind of betting profitable when we talk about these leagues?

Here is some data. The average percentage of draws in the matches between the best teams in Spain for the past three seasons is just under 23. This is expected at first glance, at least because of the large difference in the class of the two giants Barcelona and Real Madrid and all the other teams in the championship. Moreover, the group of three - four teams behind Barca and Real is also a class above the other teams in the league.

The situation in the Bundesliga is exactly the same. In the last years it became something quite common Bayern to make a series of 10-15 consecutive wins in the league. Dortmund also is a class above the rest and makes a lot of wins.

Also for these championships is typical the presence of two or three much weaker than the others teams, which also leads as a direct result of a low rate of draws in the matches.

The teams in the other two of the big leagues - the Premier League and Serie A in Italy are much more equal. The percentage of draws in this championship is around 27%.

However, the league in which we can find the most draws among the top five leagues in Europe is Ligue 1 in France. There, almost every third match is a draw.

So if you love betting on draws, your best league among these five is the French Ligue 1. Will you make some money by betting there is another topic?

Sports betting money management

Correct money management is easy to explain. It is almost impossible to adhere to.

There have been about as many 'systems' for varying the bet size as there are systems to beat the craps table. None of them work and all of them do harm by giving false expectations. Double-up systems, star betting, the Kelly Criterion, etc. all have the same thing in common. They adversely affect the cash flow and they raise the breakeven percentage that must be accomplished.

Any time you vary your bet size by the slightest amount, you increase the breakeven percentage of 52.38. If you refigure your percentage after each bet, your breakeven jumps to over 55%. If you have 1 star and 5 star bets or bet twice as much on some plays, you should understand that only the large bets are meaningful to whether you will be a winner. You might as well not bet the smaller ones. In the end, they won't matter.

Some touts say you should increase your bet when you are on a winning streak and decrease it when you are on a losing streak. The key word is 'are'. If you won yesterday, you 'were' on a winning streak. But that was yesterday. If you know you will win today, why not bet it all? If you know you will lose today, you might consider not betting at all.

The problem with bet size is not the streaks, but the breakeven. If you have a 56% advantage on each bet, over 200 games you will win less than 50% about 17% of the time.You will win more than 60% about 17% of the time. Winning 100 and losing 100 with a 5% unit, you will lose 50% of your bankroll to the vigorish. (100 wins times $50 less 100 losses times $55 equals minus $500 on a $1,000 bankroll).You will lower your bet and never get even. I recommend playing no more than 2% of your bankroll. Anything over 2% is unacceptably risky, even for recreational bettors.

The reality is that each person may be trying to accomplish something different. If your goal is to afford entertainment and not go broke, that is entirely different than my goal of making a living. If you bet $100 a game on Monday night football to enjoy the game, it will cost you $5 a week if you can go 50-50. There is nothing wrong with that. It's cheaper than a movie. But that is entertainment expense, not an excellent investment vehicle.

To do sports betting in a serious way, you must treat it as you would any other business. In sports betting, your inventory is your cash. If you run out of cash, you are out of business. The old saying is that you should not use your rent money to bet with. That is true. But if you're betting for a living it is equally true that you must not use your gambling bankroll to pay the rent.

The amazing thing about sports betting is the return on investment (ROI) that is possible. And there is no magic. The return on investment is a function of the winning percentage and the amount that is invested. The amount invested is a function of how many games (investments) are bet and how much is bet on each game. It is the same as any business. How many widgets did you sell and how much did you gross per widget.

In my case, I average between 1,000 and 1,200 plays per year. Let's call it 1,000. My pain tolerance is a 1% unit. I will bet 1.1% of my bankroll on every bet. That means I will bet 1% of my money 1,000 times...1000% of my bankroll....That's 1000% of my bankroll. And again, I will bet 1000% of my bankroll. The same money 10 times in a year. That is why such a return is possible.

Now if I can win 56% of my plays, I will get a return on investment of nearly 100%. I will win 560 bets and lose 440 bets. I will pay a broker fee to the sportsbook of 44 bets. Therefore, I will win 76 units. (76 times 1% equals 76%). I will win $7.60 for every $100 that I bet. I will explain later how I end up with 100%.

A word here on that $7.60. I've seen many people come to town and try to make a living playing sports. Some of them think they can bet $100 a game and do it. Well, think about it. If they play 20 games a week, they will bet $2,000 and, if they are good, make $7.60 times 20=$152. At $200 a game, they can expect $308. That's pretty hard to live on. I think the minimum that must be bet is $500. That's only $760 a week and leaves no room for a bad streak. To bet $500 at 1%, you need $50,000. Like any business, you should continue to invest some of the profits to grow the business.

As soon as you can draw from the business, you should put yourself on a salary. That way you can know what to expect for an income and won't be bothered by the short term vagaries of Lady Luck.

You just need to know the number of bets, the amount per bet, and the win percentage, and you will know what to pay the IRS next year.

After 19 years, I know the number of plays I have each year. I know what my bet size is. And with 1,000 plays, the standard deviation for my win percentage is 2. So I know I will win between 55% and 57%. Sounds rather dull when I put it that way. And I guess it actually is. Bernard Baruch, the great financier, said he always looked for boring businesses. They were well run, without surprises and he knew what to expect.

I know what to expect. One great lesson my brother, JR, pointed out to me was that with a 56% expectation, your bankroll would reach a new high only 5% of the time. Nineteen out of 20 days you will be below your bankroll high. The novice thinks you should have more money each day. I also know that with a 56% win rate and 100 bets a month, I will lose money every 9th month. Good money management is aided by knowing what to expect.

As a final note on bet size, I should add that I use a plateau system.

I bet 1% of my bank and continue to flat bet until my bank grows by at least 25%. Then I recalculate the 1%. Thus if I started with $10,000, I would bet $100 a game until my bank grows to at least $12,500. At that point, I would refigure my unit to $125. It would stay there until I reached at least $15,625. That way my actual risk reward ratio doesn't get too high. The other thing that I do that is unique and rather arguable is that I never lower my bet. Remember, if you vary the bet, your breakeven goes up. At a 1% unit and 19 year's experience, I'm comfortable that I can ride through a losing streak. If you lose 10 games at $200 a bet and lower the bet to $180, you must win 12.2 bets to get back to even. That is how I get my 100% annual ROI. My actual bet goes up during the year as my bankroll reaches higher plateaus.

Does the Martingale Betting System Payoff?

The Martingale Betting System was developed in 18th century France. It was actually part of a group of betting methods that were classified as “martingale.” Today, Martingale refers to a relatively simple sports betting system that dictates when you win a wager, you bet the same amount on the next wager, but when you lose a bet, you double your next wager.

Some sports gamblers swear by this methodology while sharp sports bettors that understand the math feel that it’s an example of poor money management practices. The fact that this system is still practiced and marketed today says more about the state of a losing gambler’s mind and less about the success or failure of the system. Here’s how it works.

First, it’s important to know that the system is designed for even wagers, which are thought to hit about 50% of the time. A bettor with a bankroll of $500 puts $50 on an early afternoon football game. The bet is lost. Under the Martingale System, the gambler now places $100 on the late afternoon game. If the bet is won, the theory is that the gambler makes back the original loss, plus a $50 profit. Once the bet is won, the bettor goes back to wagering $50 per game until they lose again.

The problem with this system is that it can put a bettor’s bankroll in jeopardy quickly. What if in our example the late afternoon wager is lost too. Now the bettor has to put $200 on the Sunday night contest. If that game is a washout, the gambler’s bankroll has gone from $500 to $150. And with that, the true problem with Martingale comes into focus. There’s only $150 left in the bank, but under Martingale the wager is supposed to be $400. Martingale has all but bankrupt the gambler’s bankroll.

Of course, it’s not as big a dilemma if the original wager was $20, which is a wiser wager if you’ve got a $500 bankroll. Still, even at 20 bucks per pop, using this system the gambler is down $80 after three loses and is due to wager $160 on the Monday night game. If they lose that bet, their bank is down to $260. According to Martingale, the next bet should be $320 and, once again as in the previous example, the money is not there.

What most amateur sports bettors dont understand is how odds work from a mathematical perspective. Did you know that a 50% handicapper will lose 5 games in a row 3% of the time? Eventually the math will catch with the Martingale system and the player will be broke.

Martingale is seen as being a regressive form of wagering where bettors play conservatively when they are on a roll and go for the sky when they are in a tailspin. It’s based on the belief that a string of loses on even odds wagers means that eventually there will be a win to correct the deviation. But this idea that wins and loses even out, which is known as the Gambler’s Fallacy, is illogical for one primary reason—it supposes that our four bets are interrelated, and they are not. Whether one wins or loses the first wager will have no influence on the second and the outcome of the second in no way has any influence on the third outcome. If there is no correlation in the bets the order of wins and losses is controlled by variance, something that no gambler has control over.

The application of any system in sports betting tends to be tenuous. Why? Success in gambling on sporting events is based on solid sports handicapping analysis, expert information and insider insights. A gambler’s ability to utilize all of the information available to them to make the right pick will determine an individual’s rate of success or failure and not some theory regarding odds correction based on probability. If you do practice the Martingale Betting System do so with care.

Should you pay for NBA Betting Systems?

NBA wagering strategies have given rise to an industry within the sports betting world since "experts" are constantly hawking their systems as the best out there. Furthermore, these can't-fail strategies are normally advertised online with clever sales letters and testimonials.

Of course, these systems don't come without a price - and often a steep price at that! So is it worth spending money on an NBA betting system? On average, the answer is "no" because most wagering strategies aren't worth the price being charged for them. In addition to this, many systems don't even result in long-term profits.

However, this isn't to say that every single system is completely worthless. But if you're going to find any NBA strategies, you need to do your research and read reviews before purchasing one.

The Overall Effectiveness of NBA Systems

Many people get interested in systems because they think that these strategies are some sort of get-rich-quick scheme. And if you going into sports betting with that kind of attitude, you're going to end up a long-term loser.

The truth is that no NBA betting system guarantees profits in the long-run; and if one did, everybody would use it and sportsbooks would go out of business. Even systems that are proven winners - like Allen Moody's High Points Total - aren't fool-proof strategies. Instead, they're normally based on small sample sizes like the 31-18 record that Moody boasts of.

It's worth mentioning though that some systems are good for implementing into your overall NBA betting strategy. For example, you could use the High Points Total to find an attractive matchup, then study it further before making a wager. Above all, remember that there's no substitute for hard work and doing your own research.

Be successful in sports betting